Medium and long term projections of housing needs in Australia

Summary

Demand for new dwellings in Australia is expected to remain high until 2011, particularly in the outer regions of the major capital cities, driven by changing household size and an ageing population. Housing demand projections are provided for 71 regions to 2011 and for State and Territory regions to 2031.


Project Number: 10014
Research Theme: Housing Markets
Project Leader: McDonald, Peter
Funding Year: 2000
Research Centre: ANU

Research and Policy Bulletin

Research & Policy Bulletin

Issue 033: Projected housing demand in Australia to 2011

Demand for new dwellings in Australia is expected to remain high until 2011, particularly in the outer regions of the major capital cities, driven by changing household size and an ageing population.

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Description

Information about future housing requirements is essential for planning by industry and governments at all levels. The overall aim of the project was to provide accurate and timely medium-term (10 years) and long-term (30 years) projections of future housing requirements to assist government and industry stakeholders in planning and policy development. As such, this work has a strong policy focus. The output of this project includes:

  • a description of the likely future environment for housing policy through the provision of medium- and long-term household projections at a national and regional level by household type;
  • an assessment of the impact of possible policy changes on the environment for housing policy through the development of alternative projection scenarios;
  • and specification of projection methodologies which can be used to update projections made in this project.

Projections of long-term housing requirements are based largely on demographic inputs and were made using a dynamic group model. The medium-term projection models incorporated demographic and economic variables to provide estimates of housing demand and supply. The project brought together key Australian experts in the field of household projections and econometric modelling to formulate and develop a set of projection methods and techniques suited specifically to Australian needs and resources. The project also involved consultation with users about their needs and the appropriateness of the proposed methodology.

More Information

Download now Research and Policy Bulletin: Issue 033: Projected housing demand in Australia to 2011
101 KB PDF Document

Download now Positioning Paper: No. 013: Medium and long-term projections of housing needs in Australia
360 KB PDF Document

Download now Final Report: No. 038: Medium and long-term projections of housing needs in Australia
445 KB PDF Document

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