Evaluation of medium-term projections of housing needs in Australia

Summary

This project evaluates the validity of assumptions used in earlier medium-term projections of housing demand in Australia at a regional level Overall, the projections have a high degree of reliability and provide accurate information concerning the future demand for housing at a regional level.

Project Number: 10187
Research Theme: Housing Markets
Project Leader: McDonald, Peter
Funding Year: 2002
Research Centre: ANU

Description

For an earlier AHURI study (project no10014) the Australian National University has been preparing medium-term (1996 to 2011) projections of housing needs in Australia at a regional level. The projections relate to 71 regions in Australia. The model produces estimates of households by type with each household being further identified by the age and sex of a household reference person. These characteristics are used to link households in a particular region to dwellings in that region. This provides a relationship at the regional level between household type and dwelling type (structure and tenure).

The baseline for the projections is the 1996 Census of Population and Housing. Projections are made for single calendar years from 1996 to 2011. The production of detailed tables from the 2001 Census of Population and Housing will enable an assessment of the results of the original projection for the period 1996-2001. The project aims to: Assess the reliability of the medium-term regional housing projections made in earlier AHURI project by comparing the projected estimates for 2001 with the results of the 2001 Census of Population and Housing. Consider variations in the assumptions of the original model that would have yielded improved estimates for the year 2001. Draw conclusions from the analysis of the overall reliability of the model used to project housing needs.

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