A spatial analysis of trends in housing markets and changing patterns of household structure and income

Summary

Australia’s home ownership rate fell 2.2 percentage points from 68.2% to 66% between 1986 and 1996, mainly due to a decline in the percentage of home purchasers rather than outright owners. In metropolitan areas across Australia the home ownership rate for households in the 25-44 year old age group declined by 6.7 percentage points, more than twice the decline in non-metropolitan regions and more than three times the decline in the aggregate home ownership rate.

Project Number: 60064
Research Theme: Housing Markets
Project Leader: Yates, Judith
Funding Year: 2001
Research Centre: Sydney

Description

An extensive body of housing research has highlighted the way in which housing outcomes are driven by socio-demographic factors, by changes in household incomes and by housing opportunities. Less work has been undertaken on whether spatially distinct patterns of household formation, along with spatial disparities in employment opportunities, can lead to spatial disparities in household incomes. If this is so, there will be spatial differences in the impact of socio-demographic and economic restructuring on housing markets. To the extent there are spatial differences in the response of housing markets to social and structural change, these will impact on the housing opportunities open to newly formed households both in relation to home ownership and in relation to private rental.

This project is specifically concerned with the spatial implications of socio-demographic and economic change on the two major housing tenures: viz, home ownership and private rental. It addresses explicitly two of the research outcomes from research area 2.1: viz. Further research on whether there is a decline in home ownership and, if so, what the implications would be in relation to the demand and supply of low-income rental housing, the overall level of housing consumption, the longer term impacts on housing careers, including the demand for social housing in later life, and the mismatch between stock and demand within tenures. The social and spatial manifestations of housing affordability problems within the context of a polarising income distribution. Developing an understanding of which groups of people in which localities are most likely to be affected by housing affordability difficulties. It will also contribute to two research outcomes from research area 5.1: viz. Examination of how labour market - housing market interactions differ in non-metropolitan settings. Examination of the socio-spatial interrelationship between housing and labour markets in capital cities other than Melbourne.

These outcomes will be addressed through the following specific research questions: How did the demographic, economic and social environment for the housing system change at a spatial level between 1986 and 1996? How did housing outcomes respond to or reflect these changes? The outcomes of first research question will provide an analysis of changes in housing markets at a sub-national level and a more detailed analysis of how these changes relate to changing household structures, the changing age distribution of the population and the changing economic structure of households. They will provide new data on changing home ownership patterns at a spatially disaggregated level taking into account the impact of changes in the socio-economic and demographic structures of households. They will build on work successfully completed under an ARC-SPIRT grant.

The outcomes of the second research question will provide a geographical sense of space to the emerging work on inequality undertaken by Gregory and Hunter. The outcomes will determine the extent to which observed spatial polarisation in household incomes can be attributed to changing household structure and to changing employment opportunities. They will show how changing incomes impinge upon and are affected by housing outcomes. They will supplement and build on recently completed research on the spatial analysis of change in the private rental market.

More Information

Positioning Paper: No. 030: A spatial analysis of trends in housing markets and changing patterns of household structure and income
878 KB PDF Document

Final Report: No. 022: Housing implications of social, spatial and structural change
621 B PDF Document

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