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Baseline small area projections of the demand for housing assistance

Summary

Project Number: 30205
Research Theme: Economics_Modelling
Project Leader: Harding, Ann
Funding Year: 2003
Research Centre: RMIT-NATSEM

Research & Policy Bulletin

Issue 070: Where will future demand for housing assistance take place?

Growth in demand for housing assistance amongst renters will exceed the growth rate for households from 2003 to 2011. Growth will take place mainly in major cities, but higher rates of growth will occur in non-metropolitan areas of New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory.

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104KB PDF Document

Description

HOUSEMOD is a regional microsimulation model that uses Census and Household Expenditure Survey data to project demand for different forms of housing assistance, and numbers and types of households in housing stress, for each Statistical Local Area (SLA) across Australia. The model assumes that nationally public housing will continue to house 16.5 per cent of all renters.

The key findings of the research are:

• The 14.9 per cent rate of increase in demand for housing assistance will outstrip the general growth rate of households in Australia which is projected to be 12.9 per cent.
• In 2011 the areas in which the increased rate of demand for housing assistance will be highest vary by State and Territory. It will occur primarily in major cities in Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the ACT. It will occur in major cities and regional areas in NSW and Queensland, and it will occur in regional areas in Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
• The types of areas in which the highest increases in numbers of households projected to be in housing stress by 2011 are the major cities except in Tasmania and Northern Territory where it will be a regional phenomenon. Queensland and NSW will also experience their highest increases in numbers of households in housing stress in some regional areas.
  

More Information

Research and Policy Bulletin: Issue 070: Where will future demand for housing assistance take place?
104KB PDF Document

Positioning Paper: No. 068: Baseline small area projections of the demand for Housing Assistance
2.5 MB PDF Document

Final Report: No. 092: Baseline small area projections of the demand for housing assistance
531 KB PDF Document