Falling through the net? A risk management model for home ownership support schemes

Summary

This research assessed the risks of income targeted home ownership assistance schemes for both governments and recipients, to assist decisions as to the best way to help families on marginal incomes to achieve and maintain home ownership. The research developed, tested out and reported on an econometric model designed to assess the risks associated with mortgage defaults. The modelling used data from the 1999 Australian Household Survey and from home ownership assistance programs in Western Australia and South Australia. The limitations of the available data sets were identified through the modelling process. Research directly associated with the model building process was also complemented with research focused on understanding the institutional context (policy and programs) and the socio-economic characteristics of the housing landscape and approaches to the design and delivery of income eligible home ownership assistance programs.


Project Number: 80087
Research Theme: Home_ownership
Project Leader: Grieve, Shane
Funding Year: 2001
Research Centre: Western Australia

Description

An econometric risk assessment model was developed with a view to identifying the key risk factors associated with falling out of home ownership. The model was successfully control tested using ABS Household Survey Data, for Western Australia and South Australia. But when using pooled records (no personal identifiers) of recipients of home ownership assistance programs in WA and SA, data quality issues meant that the model was unable to identify key risk factors with sufficient statistical accuracy. The modelling was complemented by a series of interviews with home ownership assistance program staff and family/financial counsellors on the influence of key risk variables as well as insights towards refining the programs and the associated safety nets.

The key findings of the research are:

  • Despite the widespread presence of a number of ‘risk factors’ throughout the pools of recipients, recent program results indicate very low rates of mortgage possessions. Financial and family counsellors also report relatively low incidence of mortgage possessions among Keystart (WA) recipients.
  • Other important drivers of Aboriginal mobility are sporting events, hunting and collecting bush resources, shopping, and accessing social services.
  • There are strong circular patterns of mobility within a well defined kinship region and to and from a key regional centre.
  • The highest frequency of visits is to a regional centre, with an average of 39 trips per year per visitor.
  • Visits are typically for 2-3 days, very few are longer than one month.
  • These mobility patterns add complexity to Aboriginal housing policy and service delivery with regard to the need to:
    • respond to both local and regional housing needs
    • design houses that cope with fluctuating numbers of residents
    • provide services that can respond to fluctuating demand that traverses jurisdictional boundaries.

More Information

Download now Positioning Paper: No. 046: Falling through the net: a risk management model for home ownership schemes
558 KB PDF Document

Download now Final Report: No. 078: Falling through the net: a risk management model for home ownership schemes
1.2 MB PDF Document

Icon: Printer  Printer friendly version        Icon: Envelopes  Email to a friend        Icon: Small book  Send feedback