Where do households move over a lifetime?

This is the first of two AHURI Briefs that examines Census data to understand how households migrate within Australian cities over a lifetime. It looks at the migration patterns of the 15-24 and 25-44 age cohorts. The second Brief examines the 45-64 and 65+ age cohorts.

Australian households have different housing requirements at different times in their lives. Household migration patterns within Australia reflect the various drivers of migration including employment, study, housing affordability and even retirement.

The ABS records the internal migration patterns within Australia using people’s change of address as registered with Medicare, and presents the information for land areas that approximate local government areas. The latest available data to include local government area migration is for 2015-16. It does not include people who apply for their first Medicare card number (i.e. new born babies and new international migrants) or people who cease to have a Medicare card number (i.e. people who permanently migrate overseas or who die).

Examining this ABS data brings to light a nuanced story of different households moving to specific areas at different times in their lives.

15–24 age group migration: inner-city aspirationals and early-nesters

By considering some of the common migration patterns outlined above, two divergent migration groups within the 15-24 age group could be suggested: the first group are 'inner-city aspirationals', possibly made up of young workers and students, moving to inner city suburbs (labelled M for 'metropolitan' in the tables), while the second group are 'early-nesters' (potentially young couples and families moving to outer suburbs (labelled MFR for 'metropolitan fringe') and regional city areas (labelled RC).

The separate migration patterns of the two groups can be deduced when looking at the migration of young children (the youngest 0-14 age cohort). The inner city suburbs have large negative migration numbers of 0–14 year olds while the outer suburbs and regional areas have large increases in 0–14 year olds. This could reflect the migration of early-nesters—young families leaving the inner-city with their young children to move into outer suburbs and regional areas.

For example, in Victoria the difference in migration patterns for 15-24 year olds between the most migrated to suburbs, Melbourne city and Whittlesea-Wallan shows this pattern. Melbourne city is a hub of employment and education likely the reason for the large growth in 15-24 year olds while 0–14 year old children move out (with their families), whereas Whittlesea-Wallan is an area of new housing developments and has a very large number of 0–14 children likely to be moving into the area with their families.

Victoria's top 10 most migrated to regions/suburbs (ranked by 15–24 age group)

Suburb type descriptors: M = metropolitan, MFR = metropolitan fringe, RC = regional city, R = rural/regional. These are broad descriptions of the suburb’s characteristics.

25–44 age group migration: fleeing to family housing

A pattern identified in the 25–44 age cohort is a move towards metropolitan outer fringe suburbs and to regional city areas. These households are likely to feature couples forming families and wanting more affordable housing, perhaps with enough outdoor space for their children to play in. Indeed, in each of the five states, the top ten suburbs with the greatest numbers of 25–44 year olds moving out were, in the vast majority of cases, metropolitan outer fringe suburbs.

In Queensland and South Australia migration patterns of 25–44 year olds follow this arrangement very closely.

In NSW the shift to outer suburbs holds for nine of the ten top suburbs; only Botany, an inner city suburb which includes Mascot airport and its associated transport hub, shows a move by 25–44 year olds to be closer to employment opportunities.

In Victoria very similar migration patterns apply as in NSW, even down to the boost in workers moving to the Tullamarine – Broadmeadows area which includes Tullamarine airport and its associated transport hub.

Western Australia shows a slightly different pattern, with households moving to suburbs that are still relatively close to the inner city regions rather than outer suburbs. This may be a reflection of cheaper housing due to declining house prices in Perth as the mining boon winds down.

Indeed, in each of the five states, the top ten suburbs with the greatest numbers of 25–44 year olds moving out were, in the vast majority of cases, metropolitan outer fringe suburbs.

NSW's top 10 most migrated to regions/suburbs (ranked by 25–44 age group)

Suburb type descriptors: M = metropolitan, MFR = metropolitan fringe, RC = regional city, R = rural/regional. These are broad descriptions of the suburb’s characteristics.