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Population growth and mobility in Australia: implications for housing and urban development policies

Inquiry into projecting Australia’s urban and regional futures: population dynamics, regional mobility and planning responses

How can leading practice methods in projecting population growth and change be implemented across the diversity of Australian cities and regions?

This Inquiry develops new insights into population dynamics and the drivers of regional mobility. Recognising diverse place-based and demographic factors underpinning growth and change, it demonstrates techniques for small-area population projections and measures housing spillovers. Outcomes will inform Australia’s settlement and infrastructure planning efforts at national, state and local levels.

Lead Researcher: Professor Nicole Gurran, University of Sydney

Project Number: 73300

Supporting research projects

  • Improving small area population projections

    This project will review population projection modelling and user requirements in Australia, with emphasis on methodology, data, projection assumptions, spatial units and time. Project outcomes will include a recommendation and implementation strategy which meets the needs of Commonwealth, state and local government.

    Led by: Professor Emma Baker, University of Adelaide

  • Understanding contemporary demographic and economic drivers of household mobility and policy implications

    This project examines spatial migration across urban and regional Australia, and the demographic, economic, and policy drivers of household mobility. Using quantitative techniques, it differentiates in- and out-migrants between capital cities and regions; examines household behavioural factors; and investigates how national, state and local policy settings may influence population dynamics.

    Led by: Associate Professor Hoon Han, University of New South Wales

  • Place-based drivers and effective management of population growth and change in regional Australia

    This project will investigate the place-based push-pull factors that explain contemporary population shifts from major centres to regional and remote settings, and how local governments can best foster and manage population growth and retention across the different economic and environmental contexts in non-metropolitan Australia.

    Led by: Dr Caitlin Buckle, University of Sydney

  • Regional housing market spillovers

    This project will examine price spillover effects between housing submarkets to understand how housing costs and equity influence migration decisions. It provides insights into population dynamics and affordability issues, with a focus on regional areas, which have traditionally provided housing options for people facing affordability pressures in inner-metropolitan areas.

    Led by: Dr Maria Yanotti, University of Tasmania