1.3 million Australian households need housing help

New AHURI research, ‘Modelling housing need in Australia to 2025’, has developed a model to estimate housing need in Australia over the next decade. It estimates that currently over 373,000 households are in housing need in New South Wales, 291,000 in Victoria, 382,000 in Queensland, 132,000 in Western Australia and 31,000 in Tasmania.

Our findings show the scale of affordable housing necessary to meet need and the challenge faced by state and local governments to deliver such housing

‘Housing need’ covers existing households that need support so that they aren’t in housing affordability stress as well as potential households that can’t form because they don’t have the resources to rent in the private market or to buy a home. These potential households arise from migration (overseas and interstate); natural formation such as two young adults forming a new couple household; or through change in household circumstances such as a single household splitting into two or being forced out of a previously rented house if rents become too high.

The lead author of the research, Associate Professor Steven Rowley from Curtin University, says ‘Our findings show the scale of affordable housing necessary to meet need and the challenge faced by state and local governments to deliver such housing. In NSW, the number of households estimated to be in need by 2025 rises to 678,000 while in Victoria, the number will approach half a million’.

For governments, the majority of households in housing need will require Commonwealth Rent Assistance (CRA) to assist them in the private rental market, while a sizeable minority (around 40%) may require public and community housing or some other form of subsidised affordable rental housing.