The COVID-19 pandemic has severely reduced the number of people coming to Australia as permanent migrants or as temporary students and has also changed how people have moved both between and within Australia’s states and territories.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has compiled internal migration data to September 2020, which includes much of the very strong second lockdown imposed by the Victorian Government, primarily on Melbourne from approximately 9 July to 8 November 2020.
The data shows that in the 2020 September quarter (i.e. the three months up to and including September 2020) the different states and territories had different internal migrations patterns (particularly when compared with data from the September 2019 quarter from before the COVID-19 pandemic).
Patterns of migration departures
Overall, the number of people migrating either between or within states and territories across Australia dropped by 7.8 per cent between September 2019 and September 2020 (possibly as a result of border closures between various states and territories).
Perth and Darwin recorded the biggest reduction in the number of people leaving, with reductions of 19.3 per cent and 16.6 per cent respectively (neither cities faced significant COVID-19 related restrictions). Conversely, Melbourne experienced an increase in people migrating out of the city (increasing by 4.2 per cent from 20,977 people in September 2019 to 21,850 in September 2020). Melbourne also had a large increase in the number of people leaving in the June 2020 quarter (a 19.3 per cent increase on the numbers who left in the September 2019 quarter) followed by a significant drop in the next quarter (when Melbourne’s lockdown was most strict).
Table 1: Internal migration departures, September 2019, June 2020, September 2020
| Numbers departing in Sept 2019 qtr. | Numbers departing in June 2020 qtr. (% change since Sept 2019 qtr.) |
Numbers departing in Sept 2020 depart (% change since June 2020 qtr.) |
% change from Sept 2019 to Sept 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Sydney | 22,848 | 23,217 (1.6%) |
22,416 (-3.5%) |
-1.9% |
| Rest of NSW | 19,314 | 20,339 (5.3%) |
17,767 (-12.6%) |
-8.0% |
| Greater Melbourne | 20,977 | 5,017 (19.3%) |
21,850 (-12.7%) |
4.2% |
| Rest of Vic. | 11,450 | 11,544 (0.8%) |
10,019 (-13.2%) |
-12.5% |
| Greater Brisbane | 16,892 | 17,136 (1.4%) |
15,528 (-9.4%) |
-8.1% |
| Rest of Qld | 20,306 | 20,496 (0.9%) |
17,995 (-12.2%) |
-11.4% |
| Greater Adelaide | 7,233 | 6,885 (-4.8%) |
6,161 (-10.5%) |
-14.8% |
| Rest of SA | 3,441 | 3,697 (7.4%) |
3,074 (-16.9%) |
-10.7% |
| Greater Perth | 9,643 | 9,003 (-6.6%) |
7,779 (-13.6%) |
-19.3% |
| Rest of WA | 6,129 | 6,033 (-1.6%) |
5,439 (-9.8%) |
-11.3% |
| Greater Hobart | 1,934 | 1,888 (-2.4%) |
1,717 (-9.1%) |
-11.2% |
| Rest of Tas. | 2,014 | 2,092 (3.9%) |
1,814 (-13.3%) |
-9.9% |
| Greater Darwin | 2,974 | 2,769 (-6.9%) |
2,480 (-10.4%) |
-16.6% |
| Rest of NT | 1,397 | 1,486 (6.4%) |
1,358 (-8.6%) |
-2.8% |
| Australian Capital Territory | 4,990 | 4,480 (-10.2%) |
4,262 (-4.9%) |
-14.6% |
| Total departures | 151,542 | 156,082 (3.0%) |
139,659 (-10.5%) |
-7.8% |
Source: ABS Regional internal migration estimates, provisional, Sep 2020. Table 5
So where did people migrate to?
Between the September 2019 and June 2020 quarters, Melbourne (-14.9%), Perth (-4%) and Brisbane (-1.2 %) saw a reduction in the number of people arriving; everywhere else saw increases, with largest percentage increase in arrivals to Rest of Victoria (14.0%) and rest of South Australia (12.4%).
This data suggests that if (in ‘normal’ times) people usually migrate for work opportunities, with COVID-19 restrictions causing employment options to reduce, then overall internal migration is also reduced. Unsurprisingly areas where COVID-19 was seen to be a bigger health concern and restrictions were perceived to be very strong, such as in Melbourne at that time, migration arrivals dropped sharply (a 27.9 percent drop in internal migrants between the September 2019 and September 2020 quarters).
Table 2: Internal migration arrivals September 2019, June 2020 and September 2020
| Sept 2019 arrive | June 2020 arrive (% change Sept 2019 to June 2020) |
Sept 2020 arrive (% change June 2020 to Sept 2020) |
% change Sept 2019 to Sept 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Sydney | 16,633 | 16,839 (1.2%) |
14,634 (-13.1%) |
-12.0% |
| Rest of NSW | 20,920 | 22,762 (8.8%) |
21,439 (-5.8%) |
2.5% |
| Greater Melbourne | 19,992 | 17,023 (-14.9%) |
14,405 (-15.4%) |
-27.9% |
| Rest of Vic. | 14,465 | 16,496 (14.0%) |
13,715 (-16.9%) |
-5.2% |
| Greater Brisbane | 20,579 | 20,325 (-1.2%) |
18,743 (-7.8%) |
-8.9% |
| Rest of Qld | 22,089 | 24,057 (8.9%) |
22,017 (-8.5%) |
-0.3% |
| Greater Perth | 9,808 | 9,411 (-4.0%) |
9,167 (-2.6%) |
-6.5% |
| Greater Adelaide | 6,140 | 6,704 (9.2%) |
5,827 (-13.1%) |
-5.1% |
| Rest of SA | 3,542 | 3,982 (12.4%) |
3,485 (-12.5%) |
-1.6% |
| Rest of WA | 5,018 | 5,398 (7.6%) |
4,682 (-13.3%) |
-6.7% |
| Greater Hobart | 1,749 | 1,846 (5.5%) |
1,555 (-15.8%) |
-11.1% |
| Rest of Tas. | 2,337 | 2,521 (7.9%) |
2,156 (-14.5%) |
-7.7% |
| Greater Darwin | 2,391 | 2,567 (7.4%) |
2,488 (-3.1%) |
4.1% |
| Rest of NT | 1,311 | 1,428 (8.9%) |
1,219 (-14.6%) |
-7.0% |
| Australian Capital Territory | 4,568 | 4,723 (3.4%) |
4,127 (-12.6%) |
-9.7% |
| Total arrivals | 151,542 | 156,082 (3.0%) |
139,659 (-10.5%) |
-7.8% |
Source: ABS Regional internal migration estimates, provisional, Sep 2020. Table 5